LAWRENCE, Kan. — The official 2008 Kansas football poster was handed out Monday night in Memorial Stadium at the Spring Game. It features a large visored Kansas player flanked to his right by a scroll that reads, "We’re Just Getting Started," and to his left by the 2008 Orange Bowl trophy. On the bottom of the poster players such as Todd Reesing, Kerry Meier and Jake Sharp are shown in football poses surrounded by giant oranges.
The poster has the subtlety of a hammer on glass. It will serve to ratchet up the expectations of the fan base in an attempt to sell more tickets. In this way the poster does its job.
It only takes the educated fan a quick glance to the poster’s left to bring them back down to earth, however. It is the team’s schedule. At South Florida. At Oklahoma. Texas Tech. At Nebraska. Texas. Missouri.
Folks, it’s about time we lower our expectations. The Athletics Department will be only too happy to remind fans that last year’s team won the Orange Bowl. That’s cool; I will hold the memories of being in Miami the day of that game until I die. I just fear it will unrealistically inflate fan’s expectations of this year’s team. Let’s leave the past where it belongs and focus on the future. I don’t feel like this marketing campaign is doing any favors to the team with the insinuation that another Orange Bowl is a realistic option. Because let’s just put all the cards on the table: it isn’t.
Last year’s schedule was cake. The galaxies aligned. This year it is brutal. Next year’s team could be better than last and still finish the regular season 9-3. That is reality. Kansas is not a National Championship contender next year. They aren’t even a BCS contender. I’m not trying to be the Grinch. This is just reality.
Additionally, there are no guarantees that the 2008 Jayhawks are more talented than the 2007 version. On top of the departing seniors, cornerback Aqib Talib and offensive tackle Anthony Collins bolted for the NFL (tangentially, this brings me to the high comedy of the last year’s KU football team picture. Check it out if you have a copy. It was distributed at the Spring Game with the words "2008 Orange Bowl Champions" at the bottom. Anyway, take a look at Talib. Every single player and coach is looking at the camera and either smiling or glaring. Except Aqib, who is looking off to his right into space. I like to think he is already figuratively looking to his future in the NFL, his head no longer with his current team, or maybe wondering if he will tell pro personnel people about his marijuana use in college. End of tangent).
In my humble opinion, the loss of Collins will prove to be much bigger than the loss of Talib. Look, we all knew Talib was gone after this season. It was easier to plan for life without him. And while I respect his big play ability, not only on defense but sporadically with the offense, the guy was frequently burned by big time receivers at the college level. He is a gambler. A huge gambler. Sometimes that pays off, like with his interception return for a touchdown ("I felt like Deion!") that might have swung the outcome of the Orange Bowl. Sometimes it doesn’t. I think replacing Talib with a lesser talented but more disciplined corner isn’t going to be the drop-off people think it is.
Collins is different. He turned himself into a stud in 2007. I attribute much more of the offense’s success to the offensive line, anchored by Collins, than I do to the skill position guys last year. And that isn’t to take anything away from Reesing & Company. The ‘Hawks were able to dominate the line of scrimmage last year with one of the country’s best left tackles. Are you convinced Kansas will still have a dominant offensive line when Collins is gone next year? I am not. The left tackle position is crucial in this team’s passing game.
Plus, this bears repeating: Wise defensive coordinator Bill Young took his act to Miami. I won’t even try to predict the significance of this, but it is more than negligible. You don’t lose one of the country’s best assistants and not experience at least a slight downgrade.
All of these things, and especially the difficulty of the schedule, need us to back up and re-evaluate things. 7-5 with a lower-tier bowl invitation would not be a disaster. 8-4 would be a really solid season. And considering the circumstances, a 9-3 season would be absolutely stellar. If this team could finish 10-2 with the talent they have and against the schedule they are playing, then as far as I am concerned Mark Mangino can be sainted.
In short, despite the advertising, do not expect another 12-1 season with a BCS berth. Mark Mangino is "Just Getting Started," building this program into a perennial power. But the deck is just too stacked against him this year to expect double digit wins.