STORRS, Conn. — The bounce of a ping pong ball could alter an NBA franchise’s fate for years. Last year, for example, it was predetermined that two teams in the 14-team lottery would be declared winners while every other team would be losers. This was because Greg Oden and Kevin Durant were considered the only two franchise-saving players in the draft.
And while Oden hasn’t even played a game and Durant’s Sonics were miserable, both Portland and Seattle will be grateful that the ping pong balls bounced their respective ways. While this year’s draft class is flooded with youth and upside, there are three players that stand out to me as potential franchise-savers in the NBA.
NCAA Tournament games can easily change the landscape of the draft - and that’s what happened this year when Memphis’s Derrick Rose took his game to another level in the six most important games of the season. He didn’t need to take over games like many other freshmen, so he played the perfect point guard role for most of the year. Then in March, we saw the Rose that will be a big-time NBA player sooner rather than later.
Rose averaged 21 points, seven rebounds and six assists per game in the tournament, leading his team to the national championship game, where he brought the Tigers from behind and put them in a great position to win. Despite the title-game loss, Rose helped his draft stock infinitely with his tournament play. There were times when he looked so fast and explosive it seemed no one could guard him and keep him out of the paint.
At 6-foot-3, Rose is big enough to defend most guards in the NBA, yet is still athletic enough to take anyone off the dribble. The only knock on Rose is his ability to consistently hit the outside jumper, but that was a concern with Chris Paul too, and look how that turned out. I could only dream about what Rose could do in a few years if teamed up with Dwyane Wade and Shawn Marion in Miami or Kevin Durant with the Sonics for the next 10 seasons. Whoever gets him will get one of the most gifted point guards to come out in recent years, and a future superstar.
Unlike Rose, Michael Beasley had a season that few freshmen could ever match statistically. The Kansas State forward averaged 26 points and 12 rebounds per game in a very tough Big 12 conference. Beasley dominated from the start, scoring 32 points and grabbing 24 boards in his first collegiate game. He went on to record a double-double in 29 of the 33 games he played.
Beasley has an offensive arsenal as versatile as any in the college game. He scores mostly in the paint, but at 6-foot-10, Beasley has the unique ability to step outside as well, shooting 53 percent from the field and 38 percent from downtown this year. Beasley has NBA athleticism and ability, and could be a great shot-blocker at the next level too.
His draft stock probably fell a little bit towards the end of the season when his Wildcats struggled, losing six of their last nine games. Scouts say he doesn’t yet have the qualities of a winning player and doesn’t really have a true position. But in my mind, his ability to play either forward position is a positive, not negative, and he shouldn’t be punished for his team struggling at the end when he did everything possible to carry them there. Whether he is the first or second pick of the draft, Beasley will prove to be a special player in the years to come.
While Beasley and Rose get all the attention as the top two players in the draft, O.J. Mayo has been falling under the radar despite having the most individual talent of the three. Mayo is known as a selfish player with possible character issues, but that doesn’t make him any different from 90 percent of NBA players today.
What matters is that Mayo can flat-out play. At 6-foot-5, Mayo can play either guard position, has a great handle, can beat you off the dribble and has deep NBA range. Mayo got better as the season went on in terms of playing unselfish basketball and getting his teammates at USC involved. But make no mistake - he has the ability to light up the scoreboard and take over a game by making shots. The best part about Mayo might be his body control and capability to take contact in the lane - something that separates him from most other college players.
For some reason, several mock drafts have Mayo falling to as low as outside the top 10 - something I do not understand at all. At worst, Mayo will be a 20-point scorer and athletic swingman. But at best, Mayo’s ceiling is higher than anyone’s, and has superstar written all over him if his head stays on straight. Strangely, players like Brook Lopez, Jerryd Bayless and DeAndre Jordan are possibilities to go higher than Mayo. But the impact Mayo will have is far greater than any of those players.
There are other good college players coming out - Kevin Love should be a double-double man in the NBA and Eric Gordon has the ability to be a big-time scorer. But they just don’t possess the combination of ability and potential as these three players.
Rose, Beasley and Mayo are the three best players in this year’s draft and it’s not even close. As a result, there will be three very happy NBA general managers when June’s draft is over, even if there was some luck that happened to bounce their way.